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Understanding Swag

Swag (Scientific Wild Ass Guess) is a high-level estimation method for portfolio items that provides a rough order of magnitude without detailed analysis. Think of Swag as the portfolio item equivalent of story points for backlog items.

Permission requirement: All users can view Swag estimates on portfolio items. Entering or modifying Swag values requires modify permissions on the portfolio item.

Who Uses Swag​

Swag estimation supports different planning perspectives:

  • Portfolio Managers use Swag to quickly size strategic initiatives for capacity planning and budget allocation without detailed analysis.
  • Product Owners estimate features with Swag to prioritize portfolio items based on value versus effort before decomposition into stories.
  • Program Managers apply Swag estimates to forecast portfolio item delivery dates and balance workload across program increments.
  • Planning Teams use relative Swag sizing during portfolio planning sessions to compare and prioritize high-level features.

What Is Swag?​

Swag stands for Scientific Wild Ass Guess, a rough estimate from an expert based on experience and intuition. A "scientific" wild guess is more precise than a random guess because it comes from someone with domain expertise. Another common term for this type of estimate is ROM (Rough Order of Magnitude).

In agile planning, Swag provides a way to compare the size, time, and effort required to complete features without going through detailed backlog estimation activities. This allows for strategic planning and prioritization at the portfolio level before decomposing work into detailed backlog items.

Swag vs Estimate​

You can choose to use the same unit of measure for both Swag and Estimate, or use different units. Each approach has advantages.

Same Unit of Measure​

When Swag and Estimates use the same units (such as story points), you can:

  • Compare directly: Quickly compare high-level estimates with detailed estimates as work progresses
  • Identify variances: Spot cases where original estimates diverge from true size once details are elaborated
  • Track rollups: View aggregated estimates in Portfolio Tree, Portfolio Item Scorecards, and Portfolio Item Burn-Up panels

Using the same unit makes it easier to track how well your initial high-level estimates held up as you learned more about the work.

Different Unit of Measure​

Swag can use a higher-level unit than your backlog item estimates. Benefits of using different units include:

  • Speed of estimation: Generate rough estimates more quickly without getting bogged down in detail
  • Clear distinction: Constant reminder that Swag is less precise (though not necessarily less accurate)
  • Appropriate granularity: Units like "Team Weeks" or "Ideal Months" match the high-level nature of portfolio planning
  • Avoid analysis paralysis: Frees teams from the burden of premature precision

If your organization tends to get stuck in analysis, using a higher-level unit for Swag can help maintain momentum in strategic planning.

How to Assign Swag Values​

Use relative sizing to assign Swag values to portfolio items, similar to how you estimate backlog items with story points.

Steps to Estimate with Swag​

  1. Choose a baseline: Select a typical portfolio item and assign it a round number (for example, 10).
  2. Compare relatively: Estimate other portfolio items relative to your baseline.
    • A portfolio item twice as complex gets a Swag of 20
    • A very small portfolio item gets a Swag of 1
  3. Refine over time: Your accuracy improves as you complete more portfolio items and refine your baseline.

The key is relative comparison, not absolute precision. Swag helps you prioritize and plan at a strategic level before investing time in detailed estimation.

Alternatives to Swag​

If Swag doesn't fit your planning approach, Digital.ai Agility provides alternatives:

Risk and Value Fields​

Use the Risk and Value fields instead of Swag to estimate and prioritize portfolio items. These fields help you assess strategic importance and uncertainty without numeric estimates.

Estimate Rollups​

Rely on backlog item estimate rollups as portfolio item size indicators. As you decompose portfolio items into stories, the rolled-up estimates provide a bottom-up view of portfolio item size.

To use this approach, hide the Swag, Risk, and Value fields in your project workspace. Release Scheduling automatically hides unused Swag, Risk, or Value summaries and shows backlog item estimate rollups instead.

Best Practices​

Start with Swag: Use Swag for early portfolio planning when details are unknown. Refine estimates as you learn more.

Maintain consistency: Whatever unit you choose, use it consistently across all portfolio items for meaningful comparisons.

Establish baselines: Create reference portfolio items with known Swag values to calibrate team estimates.

Accept imprecision: Remember that Swag is intentionally rough. Don't spend excessive time seeking precision at the portfolio level.

Track variance: Compare original Swag with actual effort (via estimate rollups) to improve future Swag accuracy.

Troubleshooting​

Why don't I see Swag fields on my portfolio items?​

Swag fields may be hidden in your project workspace configuration. Contact your system administrator to enable the Swag field for portfolio items. Alternatively, your organization may have chosen to use Risk and Value fields instead of Swag for portfolio item estimation. Check your project settings or ask your Portfolio Manager which estimation approach your organization uses.

Why does my Swag value not match the rolled-up estimates from child backlog items?​

Swag is a high-level estimate made before detailed decomposition into backlog items. It's expected and normal for Swag and estimate rollups to differ—this variance helps you understand how accurate your initial estimates were once you learned the true scope. If the variance is consistently large (e.g., Swag is always half the actual effort), adjust your Swag baseline to improve future estimates.

Should I update Swag after creating child backlog items?​

Keep the original Swag value unchanged to preserve your initial estimate for comparison. As you create child backlog items with detailed estimates, the rolled-up estimates provide the current size view. Comparing original Swag with estimate rollups helps teams improve Swag accuracy over time by identifying patterns in estimation variance.

Why can't I enter decimal Swag values?​

Swag uses whole numbers intentionally to reinforce that it's a rough estimate, not a precise calculation. If you're tempted to use decimals (like 8.5), round to the nearest whole number (8 or 9). The goal is relative sizing and prioritization, not false precision. If you need more precise estimates, decompose the portfolio item into backlog items with detailed story point estimates.